Young voters, solidly behind Obama, registering in droves

by Anne Ryman

A new national poll says young adults age 18 to 29 overwhelmingly prefer Sen. Barack Obama over Sen. John McCain in the race for the White House.

Obama leads McCain 56 percent to 29 percent with 13 percent undecided and the remaining 2 percent supporting third-party candidates Ralph Nader and Bob Barr.

The Washington, D.C.-based Rock the Vote, a political-advocacy group, conducted the random telephone poll of 500 young people shortly after the Republican National Convention ended on Sept. 4. The poll had a 4 percentage-point margin of error.

The survey also indicates that young adults could register to vote in record numbers this year.

Rock the Vote officials say that 1.6 million people have downloaded voter-registration forms from the group's Web site, up from 1 million during the 2004 presidential election. It's unknown, however, how many people who download forms will follow through and register. Eighty-six percent of those polled said they were likely to vote in the presidential election.

Young-adult voter turnout was up in 2004, jumping to 49 percent from 40 percent in the 2000 election. Although not a record, it was the biggest percentage turnout since 1992 when 52 percent showed up at the polls.

"Our biggest registration weeks are yet to come," said Heather Smith, Rock the Vote executive director. "Most people register as we get closer and closer to the election."

Arizona's registration deadline for the Nov. 4 general election is midnight Oct. 6.

Rock the Vote is a national organization dedicated to getting more young voters to the polls using music, popular culture and new technologies to grab their attention.

The Rock the Vote poll's findings differ dramatically from recent national polls that target all age groups. Those polls indicate a much tighter race between the two candidates, with Obama slightly favored in some polls and McCain with a narrow edge in others. When the margin of error is factored in, many of the polls point to a dead heat.

The Rock the Vote poll indicated that young voters are most concerned with issues that other age groups worry about, including the economy, Iraq war, gas prices and health care. The fact that their concerns are similar to the kitchen-table, pocketbook issues of older voters should make them easier for the campaigns to reach, said Brian Nienaber, a Republican political strategist.

The key for Republicans, he said, is to reach young voters through communication methods used by young people, including online videos, campaign Web sites and e-mail.

The poll results suggest the Republicans have their work cut out for them. "You don't want to be down 27 points with any age group," he said, referring to McCain's deficit in the poll.

Although young voters prefer Obama, the key will be getting them to show up on Election Day, said Celinda Lake, a Democratic political strategist whose firm designed and administered the survey.

Even though their numbers have increased, young voters still have low participation rates compared with other age groups. Poor young-adult turnout could favor the Republican Party: The poll by Rock the Vote said 50 percent of young adults identified themselves as Democratic compared with 29 percent Republican.

But McCain's selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate appears to have energized young Republicans, Lake said. Republicans who were polled said they were more excited to elect the first female vice president than they were to elect the first Black president.

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