McCainiacs cast 362,000 votes for Clinton in past month

I've crunched the numbers, and over the past month, one out of every ten votes for Hillary Clinton has come from a John McCain supporter.

These McCainiacs for Clinton vote for Clinton in the Democratic primary, but in the general election they say they will choose John McCain -- even if Clinton wins the Democratic nomination.

In all, over the past six primaries, they have cast about 362,000 of Clinton's 3.6 million votes. They're having a major impact -- without them, Clinton would not have won Indiana earlier this month.

I don't know whether these voters are part of Rush Limbaugh's Operation Chaos or if they are acting on their own initiative, but it doesn't matter. They will not support Clinton in the fall, a fact that must be taken into account by undeclared superdelegates as they assess Clinton's flimsy popular vote argument.

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My numbers come from a question in the exit poll survey which asks all voters to say who they would vote for in both a McCain-Clinton contest and in a McCain-Obama contests. Based on the answers to those questions, the exit poll data shows Clinton received the following votes in each state (rounded to the nearest 500):

• Pennsylvania: 71,500 (6% of her total)
• Indiana: 83,500 (13% of her total)
• North Carolina: 106,000 (16% of her total)
• West Virginia: 24,500 (10% of her total)
• Kentucky: 61,500 (13% of her total)
• Oregon: 14,500 (4% of her total)

I calculated the votes using the following formula:

[Total number of votes in primary] * [% of voters who say they would support McCain over Clinton] * [% of McCain supporters who voted for Clinton]

In all, Clinton's total of 362,000 votes from McCain supporters easily dwarfed the 120,000 votes Barack Obama received.

What this means is that over the past month alone, John McCain's supporters have helped Hillary Clinton narrow Barack Obama's overall "popular vote" lead by nearly a quarter-million voters.

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