Yesterday I wrote a diary here re. the general election matchups between Hillary and McCain and Obama and McCain –
Another state poll has come out today from SurveyUSA for Wisconsin and the trend I discussed is further amplified. It seems that Obama continues to clobber McCain in these matchups, while Hillary is struggling mightily. Electability has always been the top issue for me in whom I support. Unlike a large number of people on this and other blogs, I have always for the most part liked both Hillary AND Obama in terms of personality and their positions on the issues. The deciding factor has always been electability for me.
- silver spring's diary :: ::
I cross-posted my diary of yesterday on MyDD. One comment there went as follows:
"I can't possibly imagine anything more deceiving that head-to-head matchups right now, when one nomination campaign has been decided and the other is still a fierce battle. That's almost the dictionary definition of when NOT to poll, because supporters of one Democrat are likely to say to a pollster, out of the heat of the moment, that they won't support the other in the general. Of course they will. All the head-to-heads show us right now is that Clinton supporters are more generous (and level headed) and say they will support Obama. Obama supporters are more likely to say they won't, when of course they will."
I thought it was a good point. But thinking about this some more over the last 12 hours, the logic in the comment just doesn’t add up. If indeed Clinton supporters are being more generous than those of Obama right now, the big difference we see between Hillary and Obama in how they perform against McCain would be rather uniform across various states. But that is not the case. In Kentucky, for example, Clinton continues to perform relatively much better against McCain than does Obama. (In most other states, ofcourse, the opposite is true). It’s illogical to think that Obama supporters in Kentucky are somehow more generous than Obama supporters in Colorado. Something else has to be the cause of this discrepancy – but it’s not what the person who made the above comment is postulating.
At this point, the only logical explanation I see as to why Obama is performing so much better than Hillary when matched against McCain may simply be that he is indeed a lot more popular than she is among independents and other swing voters who will decide this election. I am a Democrat first and foremost, and being a Hillary supporter has always been secondary in that respect. Looking at these numbers, and with the primary election still close, it is untenable for me to continue to support Hillary. The fate of this country, including the Supreme Court, health care, and a whole host of other important issues hangs in the balance.
After months of campaigning on both the Democratic and Republican sides, I feel that the country now has a pretty good idea of how they feel about Hillary, Obama and McCain. In virtually every primary, Democratic turnout has been dramatically higher than Republican turnout – so we know for a fact that Democrats are more energized than ever. The war still continues to be very unpopular. Therefore, it is inexcusable that Hillary continues to perform this badly against a war monger like McCain. There really is just no excuse at this point. We must nominate someone who has a good chance in defeating McCain in November. It appears that that individual is Barack Obama.
I must add that there’s actually another reason which helped me to make this decision. Recently, the Hillary campaign indicated (in a somewhat oblique, yet understandable way) that they may actually fight for the nomination by attracting superdelegates REGARDLESS of how the pledged delegate count OR the popular vote final result turns out. After the tragedy of what the Republicans did in November and December 2000 – taking away the Democratic popular vote victory as well as our rightful electoral vote victory via their party apparatus theft of Florida – it is unconscionable for any Democrat to even hint at doing something similar this time around. Yet the Hillary campaign has hinted at doing just that. This is perhaps an even important factor for me in deciding to switch my support.
I have updated my maps below, and will continue to update them as polls come in from other states:
Polling used:http://www.rasmussenreports.com/ - Colorado, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, Oregon, Pennsylvania
http://www.surveyusa.com/... - Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Washington, Wisconsin
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/... - Florida, Ohio
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