Democrats On Track For Best Senate Elections in 60 Years

Democrats have had their fair share of disastrous defeats in Senate elections. In 1994’s “Republican Revolution,” the GOP swiped eight seats from underneath incumbent Democrats to take hold of the majority. In 1980, Republicans rode Ronald Reagan’s coattails to post a 12-seat gain after a long stretch of Democratic rule. But this time around, it’s the Democrats’ turn to take a few seats.

At the beginning of the 2008 election cycle, the most optimistic Democratic strategists were crossing their fingers for Democrats to pick up four or five seats, increasing their razor-thin majority and giving them some much-needed breathing room. But with alarming economic conditions and the strongest Democratic presidential candidate in more than a decade, the new projections have some party insiders dreaming about a veto-proof supermajority of 60 Senate seats in Democratic hands.

The last time Democrats were that successful, the year was 1958, and the Senate Majority Leader was future president Lyndon B. Johnson. The party added 16 seats that year.

In 2008, Democrats look all but certain to add eight seats, but could end up with as many as eleven. At the very least, that would bring the Senate makeup from 51 (49 Democrats + 2 Independents who caucus with them) to 49 (Republicans) to a 59-41 margin.

Both Democrats and Republicans are reasonably certain that retirements among Republican incumbents in Colorado, Virginia, and New Mexico will result in Democratic victories. Moreover, GOP Senator John Sununu of New Hampshire has fallen far behind his Democratic challenger- former Governor Jeanne Shaheen- making the Granite State a likely pickup as well.

The real surprising races have cropped up in the last few weeks. In Oregon, Democrats had initially thought they’d seen a weak candidate in Gordon Smith. However, an early fundraising advantage and a reasonably moderate voting record allowed the Republican incumbent to mount a double-digit lead of his own as late as August. But with the return of major focus to the economy, Smith’s prospects have tanked. As of now, Democratic State Senator Jeff Merkley is leading by a slight margin.

Unlike Oregon, Alaska was never really in the Democrats’ sights. The reliably conservative rural state has had a strong history of Republican representation in both houses of Congress stretching back to the 1970s. But corruption allegations- and eventually indictments- gave Democrats an opening. Now, the longest-serving Republican in the Senate- Ted Stevens- is fighting to keep up with Anchorage Mayor Nick Begich in a race to keep his job. At three or more points ahead, Begich looks set to take the seat, as Stevens finds himself in the middle of his own corruption trial at the same time.

Minnesota had been another place where Democrats had some early hope that faded as time wore on, largely as a result of the tight margin that got Republican Norm Coleman elected in the first place six years ago. Former “Saturday Night Live” comedian Al Franken dropped the jokes and his primary opponents, and with a little help from a third party candidate (who has been siphoning crucial support from Coleman) and the economic crisis, has emerged the frontrunner in the final weeks of the campaign.

North Carolina was a lot like Alaska in that no one expected it to be a competitive race. But unlike in Alaska, the Democratic candidate isn’t as successful as she is because of a corrupt incumbent. Democratic State Senator Kay Hagan has slowly chipped away at Elizabeth Dole’s double-digit lead of a few months ago to take a five-point lead of her own.

Maintaining their leads in these states would push Democrats to a 59-41 majority. But competitive races in three other seats have some hoping for even more. In Georgia, Republican Saxby Chambliss has watched his sure-reelection evaporate in the wake of the financial bailout. What had been a 20-point lead is now an even tie with challenger Jim Martin. In Mississippi, the race to fill the vacancy left by Trent Lott is heating up. Former Democratic Governor Ronnie Musgrove is hoping that newly registered Democrats will make up for what is only a slight lead in favor of the Republican who was appointed to replace Lott, former Rep. Roger Wicker. And finally, Democrats are hoping that Democrat Bruce Lunsford’s recent surge in Kentucky could knock Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell out of a job. The latest polls suggest a dead heat in the Bluegrass State.

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