By Thomas F. Schaller
In the second of two Salon conversations forecasting the November congressional elections, three experts share their opinions about the prospects for Democratic gains in the Senate. Jennifer Duffy is senior editor of the Cook Political Report, where she covers U.S. Senate and governor races. Since 2001, Nathan Gonzales has been political editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, a nonpartisan newsletter covering U.S. House, Senate and gubernatorial campaigns. Amy Walter is editor of the Hotline, the premier daily news digest of Washington politics. They spoke to Salon by phone.
Thomas Schaller: I want to welcome everybody to Salon's conversation. Before discussing this fall's election, let's go back one cycle to provide some context. In 2006, the Democrats captured both chambers of Congress in the same cycle for the first time since 1954, and if you don't count the Jim Jeffords switch of 2001, they recaptured the Senate for the first time since 1986. Did the 2006 Senate results in fact rate along with those earlier cycles, '86 and '54 for the Democrats or, say, 1994 and 1980 for the Republicans, as a certifiable tectonic year, why or why not?
Jennifer Duffy: I think it is comparable to '86 in a lot of ways and even '94, which was obviously a Republican year. It was a sentiment that had been building literally for almost two years since Bush's reelection in 2004, where the environment for Republicans was just awful. The problem for Republicans is that not only has it not gotten better, it's probably gotten worse.
Nathan Gonzales: 2006 is comparable just because of the six seats changing hands. I think that's [among the] top five partisan switches since World War II. But it's also amazing that now we're talking about Democrats having another good cycle and the potential to gain more seats. The shift we're seeing isn't just one cycle; we're seeing this cover two cycles.
Amy Walter: To add to that, two of these states that are now in the presidential battleground for some of us for the first time ever, for others of us for the first time in a long time, Virginia and Colorado, I think are there in part because of the fact that these were two big wins for Democrats. Certainly in Virginia last year with Jim Webb, it's gotten folks to talk about the state as really potentially becoming blue again. You ask the question about tectonic shifts, the suggestion being that we're not simply trading chairs for a while until the next party comes in and picks those seats up. We got back to parity here -- Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Minnesota, places that are blue, picked up Democrats. But to have a place like Virginia pick up a Democrat was also a very important story.
Schaller: You're saying that some of the underlying environmental dynamics of 2006 are still here in terms of the partisan advantage arguably for the Democrats and possibly even worse because the Democrats are defending very few seats this time and the Republicans are defending far more seats. Is there any chance that the Republicans recapture the Senate? Does anybody want to take a chance at playing devil's advocate here and advance any sort of scenario where the Republicans recapture the Senate?
Walter: No.
Duffy: Absolutely not.
Walter: Can I be more emphatic?
Gonzales: No, the reason is, it's not just the playing field itself, it's the three Republican open seats in Virginia, New Mexico and Colorado that really make it impossible for Republicans to gain seats. And they really have one opportunity and that's Mary Landrieu in Louisiana. It's impossible to see a scenario where Republicans net seats in the Senate.
Schaller: The party money between the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and the National Republican Senatorial Committee, there's not as big an imbalance there as on the House side, but [DSCC chairman] Chuck Schumer is crushing it again, right? How much of a factor is that?
Duffy: It is an enormous factor because Republicans are just not going to have the kind of resources they need to go support the incumbents they have that are in trouble, whereas the Democrats will not only be able to help their challengers -- and we've seen already these ads they have up in Oregon against Gordon Smith that feature their own candidate, Jeff Merkley -- we see that they've reserved media time in places like North Carolina. But they can also further expand the playing field; they can take some risks at the end if they want to. Republicans just won't be in that position at all.
Walter: It's literally just triage. At some point, we'll get to the point where we'll say, "Where's the firewall here for Republicans?" If we're just going to assume that Democrats are plus three, plus four, right off the bat, OK, what's the next state where the Republicans are going to put that money, take whatever limited resources they have and just shovel it into a couple of races and be willing to say, even potentially to incumbents, we can't prop you up, we have to put this money in places we can win? That's going to be a very tough call.
Schaller: Let's turn to some specific states. There are some interesting races this cycle. There are a lot of open seats Republicans are defending, including two in the Southwest. If you had to pick someone who is an incumbent running for reelection, who is the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent and the most vulnerable Republican?
Walter: It's pretty easy. I doubt we'll disagree that Mary Landrieu [of Louisiana] is No. 1 for Democrats and that John Sununu is the top most vulnerable Republican incumbent.
Schaller: Is there any disagreement there, Jennifer and Nathan?
Duffy: Not at all. Mary Landrieu is No. 1 through 5. She's it. There is a long drop between her and anyone else that would be considered.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment