McCain Burdened By Unpopular Republican Governors

We talked a little bit about the "up-ticket" effect, and how popular candidates can potentially benefit candidates of the same party for higher office. But what happens when you have an unpopular candidate of the same party?

The simple answer is that an unpopular senator, governor, congressman, or other official can impose a significant burden for, say, a presidential candidate. For John McCain, that nightmare looks to be a reality: a number of unpopular Republican governors are making it very difficult for McCain in their home states, despite the fact that they represent typically red constituencies.

Take Indiana, where George W. Bush enjoyed some of his most solid support. In 2000, he trounced Al Gore by 15.7 points in the general election. In 2004, Bush built on his already-considerable popularity in Indiana, emerging with a 20.5-point victory against John Kerry. But in just four short years, Indiana has undergone a remarkable change, and John McCain is going to have to put up a serious fight to win the state at all. Most analysts are rating the Hoosier State a "tossup." What's more, the latest polling from the Downs Center actually shows Barack Obama leading McCain by a narrow margin of 1%.

The likely reason behind Indiana's change of heart is Republican Governor Mitch Daniels. His approval rating has hovered among the lowest of any state chief executive in the country for the past several years. And now, he's in the fight of his political career, trailing Democratic candidate Jill Long Thompson. For McCain, that's bad news. When Hoosiers head to the polls, the GOP nominee will be sharing the ballot with one of the least popular Republicans in the country. Considering that Indiana is no small prize when it comes it electoral votes, that will be troubling to the Arizona Senator.

Missouri could be a similar story. Republican Governor Matt Blunt's approval rating has dipped even lower than Daniels'. In fact, Survey USA put him in the bottom five of all governors in the US when it came to popularity less than 18 months ago. And though Blunt has already opted out of a bid for reelection, he may have created enough of a negative climate in Missouri to put McCain on edge.

Missouri was a two-time Bush supporter, more than doubling the margin of victory from 3.3% in 2000 to 7.2% in 2004. But like nearby Indiana, Missouri is no longer a shoo-in for the GOP. Just as the race to succeed Blunt has begun to lean further and further in favor of Democrats, McCain's popularity in the state has begun to dwindle. What was a 15-point lead is now a 1-point deficit in favor of Obama, according to Rasmussen. While McCain won't share the same ballot with Blunt in November, its possible that the anti-GOP sentiment as a result of Blunt's popularity will be burdensome to the presidential candidate.

A final example- Bob Taft of Ohio. Now, Taft is already out of office, having lost in a landslide to Democrat Ted Strickland. But before he left office in January of 2007, Taft was the lowest rated governor in the country. Survey USA put his approval rating at a shockingly dismal 18%. In the meantime, Strickland has surged, quickly becoming one of the most popular governors across the nation.

Ohio is another two-time Bush backer, but now hardly even a tossup- Obama is ahead by as many as 11 points, according to a Public Policy Polling study in mid-June. Strickland only ousted Taft in November of 2006. Two years isn't a lot of time to change the sentiment of Ohioans toward the GOP. Moreover, they like their new governor. So, from beyond the political grave, Taft is haunting McCain, who now has to campaign in a state that has been made at least a little more averse to Republican candidates.

The effect of the local political climates on the national election can't be underestimated. And when it comes to negative feelings toward the GOP on the part of the electorate, that presents a real problem for McCain.

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