Ireland delivers stunning blow to Europe's leaders

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The long campaign to forge a new dispensation for the European Union descended into panic and uncertainty yesterday when Ireland turned its back on its 26 EU partners and voted down the Lisbon Treaty.

EU leaders in Brussels and governments across the union, particularly Germany and France, were stunned by the Irish verdict, which amounted to a huge vote of no confidence in the way the EU is run.

The referendum in Ireland was the sole popular vote in the EU on the grand plan to give Europe a sitting president and foreign minister, and reconfigure the way the EU is governed. The result left the project severely wounded, perhaps fatally.

The Irish voted by a 7% margin, 53.6 to 46.4, against the treaty, which has already been ratified by 18 EU countries and is expected to be endorsed by the other eight.

The result left Europe's leaders with a giant dilemma over what to do next. A summit next week in Brussels was originally planned as a celebration. The Irish result is particularly painful for Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, who masterminded the new treaty last year, and for the French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, who was relishing the central role of ushering in a new European era over the next six months of France's EU presidency.

Berlin and Paris moved swiftly last night to try to limit the damage, pressing Downing Street, according to sources in Brussels, not to make matters worse by abandoning Britain's ratification of the treaty, now in its final stages in the Lords.

Merkel and Sarkozy issued a joint statement, urging all other EU countries to ratify the document and declaring that the reforms envisaged by the treaty remained essential. Gordon Brown was said to have reassured both governments that he had no intention of scrapping ratification.

"It is the height of arrogance for Gordon Brown to press ahead with ratifying this treaty, flying in the face of public opinion," said the Tory leader, David Cameron. "The elites in Brussels have got to listen to people in Europe who do not want these endless constitutions and treaties."

The pressure on Britain indicated that Germany and France still hope to salvage the treaty, although it was not clear how since it has to be ratified by all 27 EU countries to take effect.

"It's not a Doomsday scenario. Everything now depends on next week's European Council [summit]," said a diplomat in Brussels.

José Manuel Barroso, the president of the European Commission, said: "The no vote in Ireland has not solved the problems which the Lisbon Treaty is designed to solve. The ratification process is made up of 27 national processes; 18 member states have already approved the treaty, and the commission believes the remaining ratifications should continue to take their course. I believe the treaty is alive."

Everything suggested that Europe's key leaders were urgently conferring on a scheme to steamroller their blueprint through despite the Irish rejection, a course likely to trigger protest from Eurosceptics and deepen Europe's democratic legitimacy problems.

At the very least, the deadlines for implementing the treaty looked difficult to achieve. The new regime was to be in place by January 1 2009, to be up and running before European parliament elections next May and the appointment of a new European Commission in October.

The treaty was backed by nine out of 10 MPs in the Irish Dáil and all the main political parties, except Sinn Féin, but the government of Brian Cowen, in office for only a few weeks, was felt to have run a complacent and lacklustre yes campaign. An odd and well-funded coalition of anti-European forces stole the headlines.

"You don't say yes to something you don't understand," said Hugo Brady, a analyst at the Centre for European Reform thinktank.

The no vote was boosted by concerns over sovereignty, possible tax harmonisation, neutrality, and fears that the treaty could erode Ireland's abortion ban, all issues that analysts say are fatuous.

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