Will Bob Barr Help Obama Beat McCain?

November 4^th, 2008 is rapidly approaching, 161 short days from now.

No one knows for sure what the outcome of the election will be, but yesterday two things became clear; 1). Bob Barr's name will be almost as well known as Ralph Nader's and 2). Barack Obama is likely to receive at least some sort of an Electoral Map boost from Barr in November.

Yesterday in Denver, Colorado the Libertarian Party nominated former Republican U.S Congressman, Bob Barr, as their official candidate to square off against John McCain and Barack Obama in the fall, and it looks like Barr's candidacy will siphon off more votes from McCain than it will from Obama.

In the past the Libertarian Party has not made too much of a splash in Presidential politics. With only 250,000 members nationwide they have struggled with even getting their candidate on the ballot in many states.

2008 is shaping up to be a different kind of year for the Libertarians, however. They expect to be on the ballot in 48 states and they are working to gain access to ballots in West Virginia and Oklahoma in order to make it 50.

Plus, as Bob Barr himself has said, this nation is craving political change.

Early polling indicates that a small slice of that change will come in the form of votes for Bob Barr. Rasmussen recently conducted a poll which pitted Barack Obama, John McCain, Ralph Nader and Bob Barr against each other in a hypothetical General Election. The results:

Barack Obama: 42%

John McCain: 38%

Bob Barr: 6%

Ralph Nader: 4%

The presumption is that Barr will have more of a negative impact on McCain while Nader will pull in a few more potential Obama voters. Polling appears to confirm this.

Of course we're dealing with very small percentages here, a percent or two at best, but if the General Election were held today, a 2% swing in either direction could change the outcome in at least nine states containing 82 Electoral Votes. That is a major chunk of the 270 needed to win the Presidency.

Additionally there is always the possibility that Bob Barr's candidacy hits a tipping point and really takes off. We have seen two relatively unknown candidates in Howard Dean and Ron Paul achieve incredible electoral feats in the past two election cycles by quickly becoming household names with the ability to raise huge sums of money.

Of course Dean and Paul were both running in primary battles within one of the two major parties, but maybe it is a third party candidate's turn to ride an internet driven wave of popularity.

Barr and the Libertarians seem to think so. They have been studying Ron Paul's Campaign during this election cycle and they have even hired a strategist from Paul's campaign, as well as a former Ross Perot strategist.

There are some major obstacles for Barr though. As a former Democrat and a former Republican who voted for the USA Patriot Act and aggressively fought the "war on drugs" Barr is not likely to catch fire within the base of the "Stay outta my business" Libertarian Party. But, as a candidate who talks a great game about reducing the size of government, he may appeal to some of the less zealous Libertarians out there and to many small-government-Republicans who have felt ignored by the GOP throughout the past several election cycles.

Despite the above challenges, Barr has said that he believes he will be invited to the national political debates by qualifying with 15% in national polls. We'll see about that, but if Barr even comes close to that number it will make for an even more interesting and groundbreaking election than we are already having.

And who knows? Maybe Rep. Barr can even knock off McCain in the Congressman's home state of Georgia and steal 15 Electoral Votes from the Republicans. And what if that left both major candidates without the required 270 votes to win the election?

It is certainly a long shot, but Representative Bob Barr could be the force that throws this Election to Congress.

How crazy would that be?

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