Obama Steering Democrats to Massacre of Senate Republicans

The 2006 midterm elections were among the most successful for Democrats in recent history, with the five-seat shift in the Senate, the thirty-one-seat shift in the House, and the six-seat shift among governors resulting in Democratic majorities in all three categories. Ultimately, the massacre Republicans are facing in the Senate in 2008 may end up making the rout in '06 look like child's play, thanks in no small part to the likely Democratic nominee.

Of the 35 Senate seats being contested in November, 23 of them are held by Republicans, giving Democrats the opportunity to go on the offensive once more. As it stands now, Democrats are either favored or competitive in eleven states. Potentially, Barack Obama could give a significant advantage to the candidates in each of those contests. We'll get into why in a minute.

First, let's look at the places where Democrats are faring best. In New Mexico, Rep. Tom Udall is the runaway favorite to win the seat being vacated by retiring Republican Senator Pete Domenici; opinion polls have Udall's opponents trailing by anywhere from 15 to 25 points. Just to the north in Colorado, Udall's cousin, Mark Udall, is threatening to take the seat being vacated by retiring Republican Wayne Allard. He leads by margins of 5 to 10 points. Virginia is shaping up to be a blowout- former Democratic Governor Mark Warner is a 20-point favorite to succeed retiring Republican John Warner (no relation). In New Hampshire, former Democratic governor Jeanne Shaheen is looking to take out an incumbent. She leads John Sununu there by 7-15 points. The Republican incumbent in Alaska, Ted Stevens, is in world of trouble as well. The longest-serving Republican in the Senate is trailing his opponent, Anchorage Mayor Nick Begich, by about 5 points. And finally, former Democratic Governor Ronnie Musgrove is leading incumbent Roger Wicker (who was appointed to fill the seat vacated mid-term by Trent Lott) by about 8 in Mississippi.

Additionally, Democrats are within striking distance in three other states. North Carolina is a statistical dead heat- Kay Hagen has been shown in the past two weeks to either trail incumbent Elizabeth Dole by a few percentage points, or to lead her by a narrow margin, according to recent polling. Republican Gordon Smith (another cousin of the Udalls), is facing an uphill battle in Oregon, where he's leading Jeff Merkeley- who was just nominated on Tuesday- by a mere 3 points. Even in the Republican stronghold of Texas, Senator John Cornyn is only leading his Democratic challenger by 4 points.

There are a few places where Republicans still maintain double-digit leads, but are far from out of the woods. Senator Susan Collins of Maine isn't quite in trouble yet, but the Republican has seen her lead over Democratic challenger Rep. Tom Allen consistently shrink, down from 16 points a little more than a month ago to just 10 today. In Minnesota, Senator Norm Coleman had been staring down the barrel of comedian Al Franken's candidacy, but now seems to be stabilizing with a 20-point lead. Still, the top political analysts from around the country rate the race a "tossup." For lack of polling it's a little difficult to say, but Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky could be the victim of circumstance- Democrats just took the governor's mansion in 2007, and the other Kentucky Senator, Jim Bunning, is highly unpopular in the state.

Where does Obama fit into all of this? Of the eleven states mentioned, Obama won caucuses or primaries in all but three of them. Many of the voters who gave Obama enormous wins in key states will return to the polls to vote for him again in November- and likely the Democratic Senate candidates there as well. In some of the states where Democrats have a narrow lead- like Alaska, Mississippi, and Colorado, where Obama won overwhelming primary victories- that could mean enough insurance to secure the victory. Obama didn't beat Clinton in New Hampshire, but he did reasonably well there, probably enough to push the Democrat Shaheen up a few points over Senator Sununu. In closer states- North Carolina, Oregon, and Texas (remember, Obama won the Texas Caucus, and very nearly won the Texas Primary as well)- Obama's popularity could put Democrats over the top. And in Main and Minnesota, Obama's presence may tighten the race enough to force the GOP to spend more money to defend those seats. And of course, that means reallocating resources, potentially to the detriment of candidates elsewhere.

Moreover, Obama's ability to mobilize voters in new electoral markets may lead to success in areas that Democrat's don't typically perform well. Take Mississippi, which has been represented by at least one Republican in the Senate for 30 years. Obama performed exceedingly well there, largely attributable to his ability to bring in the African American vote. The same can be said in North Carolina. Had Hillary Clinton won the nomination, it's unlikely that she would have inspired the massive turnout among that demographic in the general election, potentially robbing those candidates of the success they're anticipating under Obama's ticket.

Democrats are poised to turn a 51-49 majority in the Senate into a much stronger one, potentially as high as 62-38, one of the largest majorities they've ever had. And if Obama can help the Democratic candidates realize their goals, they may be able to pay him back in an incredibly useful way: the nearly 2/3 majority will allow Obama to slide cabinet, federal court, and Supreme Court nominations through the legislature without a hitch.

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