Obama Leads in Delegates, States, and Margins

The current delegate count according to the Results Center on Barack Obama's website had him ahead by 87 delegates, heading into the Potomac primaries this Tuesday. The total count is 1031 for Obama to Clinton's 944. Perhaps more stunning however is the number of states that each candidate has won.

Out of 31 states that have held their contests so far, Obama has defeated Clinton in 20 of those states. The margins of victory in each contest seems to differ by candidate.

The Fresh Political has done its own thorough analysis of each state based upon CNN statistics. This is what we have found:

Average Vote Share By Candidate (%)

According to this data, Obama's victories are both greater in number, and magnitude than Clinton's victories. The Median percentage in all contests as of Monday shows Obama performing much better on average. Obama's median percentage is 48.5% to Clinton's 32%. The disparity reflects Clinton's inability to perform well in smaller states, especially those holding caucuses. The average margin of victory in caucus states is even greater for Obama.

The Clinton campaign has recently been saying that their strategy is to do well in the fewer, more populous contests ahead. This includes Texas and Pennsylvania. If Clinton can pull off a win in these big states, it could potentially be viewed as an upset that might propel her to the nomination. However, this seems unlikely considering Obama's powerful performance in smaller states.

It is also important to note that Obama's average vote share is not only high due to his strong performance in caucus states. He has also shown the ability to eat away at Clinton's lead in states that she was expected to dominate. For example, her margin of victory in her home state of New York and neighboring New Jersey was half that of Obama's margin in his own home state of Illinois.

The averages seem to reflect that the tide is changing. Even in states where Clinton had a huge homefield advantage, Obama has demonstrated his ability to give Clinton a run for her money. Combine this with the momentum gained from his sweep this weekend, and it appears that Obama is leaving Clinton in the dust.

New national polls seem to reflect this changing tide. A USA Today poll today showed Obama leading Clinton by 3 points for the first time in any national poll.

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