McCain Supporters Deliver Indiana To Clinton

Hillary Clinton’s narrow victory in Indiana last night would not have been possible without votes from John McCain supporters who have no intention of voting for her in the fall, even if she were to win the nomination.

Here’s a look at the numbers behind Clinton's Indiana performance (based on exit poll data on MSNBC.com):

Clinton won Indiana with 51% of the vote to Barack Obama’s 49% for a 2 margin of victory. After subtracting pro-McCain voters from each candidate’s total, however, the numbers reverse.

Excluding pro-McCain voters, Obama actually leads Clinton with just over 51% for a nearly 3 point margin.

In all, pro-McCain voters in Indiana caused a net shift of 5 points in Clinton's favor in the final margin, in the process taking what would have been a Barack Obama victory and handing it instead to Clinton.

In Indiana, more than 1 in 8 Clinton voters said they would vote for John McCain even if Clinton won the nomination compared to fewer than 1 in 22 Obama voters who said they would vote for McCain if Obama won the nomination.

In North Carolina's primary, which is closed to Republicans, Clinton relied even more heavily on pro-McCain voters who say they would not vote for her in the general election than she did in Indiana. (NC exit poll on MSNBC.com.)

Nearly 1 in 6 of Clinton’s North Carolina supporters were pro-McCain voters. Meanwhile, just 1 in 31 Obama supporters were pro-McCain voters.

The final results in North Carolina were 57.5% to 42.5%, giving Obama a 15 point victory. After subtracting pro-McCain voters from both candidates, Obama’s victory margin increases by 7 points, giving him a 22-point 61%-39% win.

By the books, there's no taking away Clinton's Indiana victory, but it is worth remember that it was only made possible by voters who have no intention of voting for a Democrat in the fall.

Original here